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The definitive, probability-based account of NHL draft prospects and their career production arcs. Built on 12,000+ picks. Exposed through data.

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ReDraft Room

What would a draft class look like if we redrafted it today, knowing how every player's career actually turned out?
The ReDraft Room re-ranks every draft class using actual career production data. See who should have gone first, which late-round picks outperformed their slot, and where each team found — or missed — value.
Fans Broadcasters Front Offices
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2015 FIRST ROUND — REDRAFT
Original → ReDraft
Original
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    Prospect Probabilities

    How likely is this prospect to become an NHL regular — and what tier of player will they be?
    Model-generated probability scores for every draft-eligible player. Each prospect gets a projected likelihood of reaching NHL tier outcomes — from All-Star to journeyman — updated weekly through draft season.
    Scouts Fantasy Front Offices
    View 2025 Probabilities
    2025 PROSPECTS — LIVE MODEL
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    CarProd Tables

    How did this player's career actually stack up against every other player drafted in the same era?
    CarProd (Career Production) tiers every drafted player from 1964 to today using era-adjusted, position-normalized career output. Each player gets a tier badge — from All-Star to Unique — and a career production arc sparkline that tells their whole story in one glance.
    Researchers Broadcasters Fans
    Browse CarProd Tables
    CARPROD — CAREER PRODUCTION ARC · DEFENSEMAN
    Elite Top Pair 2nd Pair Bot Pair Depth
    ’10’11’12’13’14’15’16’17’18’19’20’21’22’23’24’25’26
    Early Career
    Seasons 09–10 to 25–26 · CarProd Tier Trajectory
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    Trade Calculator

    Is this draft pick trade actually fair — and what career value am I really buying or selling?
    Evaluate pick-for-pick and pick-for-player trades using expected career production value. Unlike basic pick charts, this one is grounded in what draft slots have historically produced — measured in real player outcomes, not abstract point systems.
    Front Offices Fantasy Fans
    Try the Trade Calculator
    Trade Analysis
    CGY ⇆ OTT
    Sends
    2025 1st Round (#4)
    Expected Value—
    Sends
    2025 1st Round (#12)
    2026 2nd Round
    Expected Value—
    0%
    Awaiting analysis
    CGY comes out +3.5 EV ahead
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    Data-Driven Content

    The Intel

    Weekly analysis and data stories generated from our models. Context for the draft — not just numbers.

    Probability Ladder Apr 8, 2026

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    Hagens holds the top spot at 94. Frondell climbs to 4th after a dominant SHL postseason.

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    Deep Dive Apr 3, 2026

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    How the deepest class in a decade looks through the CarProd lens ten years later.

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    Model Notes Mar 28, 2026

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    An open look at the inputs, weights, and league adjustments behind the scores.

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    Scout Roll Call Mar 24, 2026

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    Julien BriseBois’ 11-scout staff covered 8 territories. Model score: 66.3.

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    League Head-to-Head Mar 20, 2026

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    SHL leads first-round hit rate, OHL produces 3x the volume across rounds 2–7.

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    Against The Odds Mar 16, 2026

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    Drafted 58th with a model score of 41.3 — 18th percentile. 900+ NHL games later.

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    Go Deeper

    See the draft differently.

    Free access to the ReDraft Room and sample CarProd tables. Pro unlocks full probability data, the Trade Calculator, and weekly Intel drops.

    Get DraftResearch Pro →
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    Picks
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    Players
    3,400+
    Staff